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Category Archives: Capacity
Posted inCapacity, Strategy •

Fast-Time Simulation, as an airspace planning and development tool

Aviation has been growing at a rapid pace, and at times it may seem that efforts are not enough. Despite advancements in aircraft and technology, they may prove to be less effective if we do not consider the available airspace for their operation.

While predicting the future of airspace in the coming years precisely is a challenge, we can make some estimations regarding the factors that will influence its evolution, such as automation, integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), improvements in operational safety, emissions reduction, and the growth of air traffic. In this blog, we will focus on the latter aspect.

Nowadays, airspace users such as airlines, general aviation, military, and UAVs, among others, are seeking alternatives to accommodate the increasing air traffic in the airspace. This plan aims to ensure that all stakeholders in this domain function effectively to guarantee operational safety and prevent demand from exceeding the capacity or the controller workload. Additionally, it aims to maximize operational efficiency and reduce emissions.

A fast and cost-effective way to evaluate airspace response to traffic growth is through Fast Time Simulation (FTS). This tool quickly processes a large volume of traffic, creating simulations of airspace behavior in a model that closely resembles reality. This enables the selection of optimal designs based on the planning needs mentioned in the preceding paragraph.

Recent years

We have utilized FTS to conduct various capacity studies at airports and their airspace. Below, we will mention some examples where we have employed FTS to suggest changes that could be implemented to anticipate an increase in capacity.

Several studies were conducted using FTS to assess and enhance the operational capacity of some airports in Latin America. These studies identified aircraft separation as a primary factor in restricted capacity and nighttime operation delays affecting the efficiency and future expansion potential of the airports. Some solutions were simulated, and among the most prominent results, measures such as reducing airspace separations and redesigning airspace to open new control positions were proposed, thus alleviating controller workload, and better managing increased air traffic.

Moreover, it was found that the implementation of simultaneous instrumental approaches to parallel runways (IPIA) (Which also required an airspace and procedure redesign) could significantly increase arrival capacity only. However, it was noted that combining the implementation of (IPIA) and reducing separations between arriving aircraft for allowing a departing aircraft to take off, could result in increased capacity in both scenarios when:

  • Arrivals prevail
  • In mixed operations (When half of the operations are arrivals, and the other half are departures).

In another project, airspace capacity was simulated considering the workload of controllers. It was found that the lack of horizontal separation between inbound and outbound flows of the Terminal Control Area (TMA) generated conflicts and increased the controller workload. This highlighted the need to improve procedures to resolve these issues efficiently.

All previous simulations were conducted to enhance operational performance related to airspace, to achieve maximum efficiency, and to identify bottleneck points and delays. With all of this, it becomes possible to contemplate new strategies and proposals that enable the resolution of existing problems, as well as those that may arise in the long term with the increase in airspace demand.

References

Authority, U. C. (2024). UK Civil Aviation Authority.

Pier Ferraris, M. R. (June de 2022). ICAO Meeting.

Solutions, T. (Mayo de 2024). Transoft Solutions. 

Yao Lu, C. L. (August de 2021). FAST-TIME SIMULATION OF AIRPORT SURFACE MOVEMENT.

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Posted inCapacity, Environment, Strategy •

Beyond the Runway – Navigating Airport Master Planning 

Successful airport development extends beyond infrastructure construction; it involves fostering connectivity and prosperity both in the skies and on the ground. This core principle underscores the substantial impact of strategic, long-term planning on airport and aviation infrastructure. Master planning serves as the foundation of this process, shaping airports to be flexible, resilient, and sustainable entities for the future. 

Within this context, the airport represents a highly complex system where its capacity and adaptation to demand growth must be planned with long-term perspectives, focusing on the Quality of capacity. Masterplans should be capable of enhancing the functionality levels of the airport and the services provided to passengers. Simultaneously, they should adhere to the ecological and environmental requirements of the surrounding area. That’s why To70 aims to address the broader question of how to enhance the Quality of the offered capacity, making it sustainable, more modular, and resilient to sudden changes.

Recent data from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) indicates a rapid expansion in air travel, reflecting increased flights and passengers worldwide. Despite challenges such as those posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and growing environmental concerns, demand for air travel remains strong. This underscores the importance of airports enhancing their quality of capacity to accommodate rising passenger numbers sustainably. It’s crucial for airports to adjust master plans accordingly, ensuring they can effectively manage increased volumes while prioritizing environmental, social, and economic sustainability.

What is Airport Master Planning?

Airport master planning, as described by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), involves the systematic and strategic process of analyzing current and future aviation demand, identifying infrastructure requirements, considering environmental and safety factors, and establishing long-term development strategies to guide the growth and development of an airport. This comprehensive approach encompasses key elements such as:- runways, – taxiways, – cargo facilities, – terminal buildings, – car parking areas, – aprons, – hangars, – fuel depots, – control tower and other essential infrastructure. At To70, we believe that a successful airport master plan should prioritize enhancing passenger experience, optimizing operational efficiency, and accommodating Growth in a flexible, resilient and Sustainable way.

Let’s now explore in detail each of these crucial elements that constitute a successful airport master plan.

A. Enhancing passenger experience

Developing an airport that prioritizes the passenger experience is crucial for effective airport master planning. It involves formulating a strategy rooted in a deep comprehension of customer desires, of passenger preferences to develop and refine profiles, and delving into their behaviors and patterns to create a highly personalized experience. The integration of technology plays a pivotal role in elevating operational efficiency, optimizing the passenger journey, and minimizing the necessity for additional infrastructure, enhancing the level of service across all subprocesses and guaranteeing a seamless journey.

B. Efficient operations

Strategic and efficient airport management guarantees flawless transitions and optimal performance at each phase. Meticulously planned infrastructure, including runways, taxiways, and aprons, not only streamlines aircraft movements but also minimizes taxi times, elevating overall operational efficiency. Crucial to meeting both current and future demands, resource optimization and capacity planning are prioritized, featuring flexible layouts adaptable to diverse aircraft sizes. Resilience is inherent, with contingency plans and backup systems in place, ensuring uninterrupted operations even in the face of unexpected disruptions. Similarly, the landside infrastructure adheres to this concept to amplify the passenger experience as previously outlined.

C. Accommodating Growth in a flexible, resilient, and Sustainable way

To envision a dynamic airport landscape teeming with activity, it is essential to devise a masterplan that can adapt flexibly to rapid aviation growth while remaining resilient to downsizing due to disruptions and climate risks. This demands meticulous foresight and strategic planning, starting with an analysis of current and projected air travel demands against existing infrastructure capacity. Comprehensive demand forecasting scrutinizes historical data to discern emerging trends. Infrastructure planning orchestrates phased expansion strategies to optimize airport capacity and operational efficiency, emphasizing flexibility and modularity in design for seamless adaptation over time. Terminal layouts and gate configurations are engineered for versatility, while runway and taxiway designs ensure scalability to manage heightened air traffic with minimal environmental impact and cost. All of this is carried out with a keen focus on the quality of capacity, ensuring that the airport grows sustainably over time.

Steps for an Airport Master Planning 

Airport master planning is a comprehensive process that guides the growth and development of an airport, ensuring its long-term sustainability and effectiveness. At To70 airport master planning process is divided into three distinct phases: developing understanding, exploring solutions, and implementation. Within each phase, thorough analysis, collaborative project meetings, and the creation of essential work products by the project team are crucial. Moreover, a critical aspect of each phase is the incorporation of feedback loops, allowing for adjustments and refinements to the work based on stakeholder input and changing circumstances. 

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Posted inCapacity, Efficiency, Safety •

Understanding safety risks from another perspective – Bowtie

According to the initial investigation by the Japan Transport Safety Board, the recovered flight data and voice recorders indicate that the pilot misunderstood the ATC instruction and entered the runway without permission. Furthermore, it is suggested that the lack of monitoring by the ATC controller could have played a role in this unfortunate incident. This shows the complexity of aviation safety management which always involves many stakeholders. As a methodology focusing on specific events, the bowtie methodology may provide another perspective for the management of the major risks.

On January 2, a Japan Airlines A350, flight number JAL516, was involved in a collision with a Japan Coast Guard DHC-8 during its landing at Haneda Airport. Five of the six crew on board the DHC-8 died in the collision, but all 367 passengers and 12 crew on the A350 were evacuated without a fatality. Both aircraft were destroyed by the fire after the crash.

What is runway incursion and why does it happen?

ICAO defines a runway incursion as any occurrence at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft. The runway incursion may dramatically increase the risk of collision. Since runway incursion occurs during the landing or take-off phase of an aircraft, at least one of the involved aircraft will be running at a high speed, which increases the risk of aircraft damage, injury, and fatality. Due to its severe consequences, ICAO places it among the five highest-risk categories of safety events. The deadliest accident in aviation history, the Tenerife Airport disaster, which resulted in 583 fatalities, was also attributed to the runway incursion.

Many factors may induce this incident. According to the Global Action Plan for the Prevention of Runway Incursion (GAPPRI) developed by EUROCONTROL, the variability of human performance, lack of systemwide collision avoidance barriers, degraded runway status awareness, miscommunication and coordination, and challenges in surface navigation are the main reasons.

To reduce its occurrence and to mitigate its impact once it happens, all the stakeholders involved in the airport operations, including airport designers, airport operators, aircraft operators, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), ground handlers, manufacturers and the rescue and fire-fighting services (RFFSs), usually develop comprehensive regulations, procedures, training, and inspections from their own perspective. However, as a systemic incident, the prevention of runway incursion needs collaborative endeavors from many positions in various scenarios. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a comprehensive but concise method to deliver the risk management measures and the safety status to all related personnel.

Bowtie – understands runway incursion from another perspective

A bowtie diagram visualizes the risk you are dealing with in one understandable picture. The diagram is shaped like a bowtie, creating a clear differentiation between the proactive and reactive sides of risk management. The bowtie methodology provides another perspective on risk management. Different from traditional risk management which focuses on a specific position or process, a bowtie diagram is developed from an event.

With structured knowledge, different scenarios including the reasons and consequences of the event could be built up. Barriers could be set into scenarios to show what controls are in place to prevent, mitigate or eliminate major consequences from happening. Bowtie diagrams ensure easy risk communication by making the risk visual and understandable on the right abstraction level. Various colours, patterns or filters could be used to highlight the position in charge as well as the criticality and effectiveness of the barriers, which provides the safety manager with an overview of the entire risk management.

Bowtie methodology also provides solutions for the life cycle of risk management from proactive safety inspection to reactive incident investigations. Since all the processes are organized under the same method structure, the procedures could be simplified and the results could be presented in a clear, understandable and uniform way. Out of its benefits, the UK Civil Aviation Authority and other organisations have listed bowtie as a recommended method of risk management.

*To70 uses the Bowtie methodology to understand complex safety critical incidents and other issues. 

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Posted inCapacity, Efficiency, Safety •

Safety Oversight System to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of National Civil Aviation Authority’s regulation processes

The Universal safety Oversight audit Program (USOAP) is a method developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to assess and monitor the safety oversight capabilities of Member States. Nowadays, the USOAP will become the challenge for National Civil Aviation Authorities (CAAs) by many reasons such as data management, coordination effective, resources allocation etc. To meet these challenges, the Safety Oversight System has become the one of approaches, which help CAAs implement a centralized database, standardized processes and documents management. There is important in meeting the challenges of the future, as aviation systems become increasingly complex and new technologies are introduced. Now, let’s explore the advantages of implementing a Safety Oversight System in greater detail.

Advantages of using the Safety Oversight System 

The Safety Oversight System, which are beneficial to stakeholders in aviation value chain, is able to improve efficiency, safety and cost-effectiveness.
>In recent years, CAAs have been implementing a Safety Oversight System in their aviation processes to improve efficiency, safety and cost-effectiveness which are beneficial to stakeholders in aviation value chain.

Improved Efficiency of Working Process

Safety Oversight System can lead to significant improvements in efficiency, particularly in the authorities where limited resource. By streamlining processes and reducing errors, digitalization can help aviation authorities to optimize their operations and maximize their resources.
For example, digitalizing the certification process can reduce the time and resources required to review and approve applications. By automating tasks such as document verification and record keeping, speed up the certification process and reduce errors. This can lead to faster processing times for applicants and ultimately improve the aviation industry’s safety and security.
Additionally, digitalization can also improve the efficiency of inspections and audits. By automating the collection and analysis of inspection data. This can help to prioritize resources and better target inspections and audits to ensure compliance with regulations.

Enhanced Safety and Security Oversight Standard

As an aviation authority, ensuring safety is of huge importance. Digitalization can greatly enhance safety in the aviation industry by providing aviation authorities with centralized database collection and analysis. This can enable them to take proactive measures to ensure the safety and security of air travel.
>For example, in the maintenance process, a Safety Oversight System can provide a structured approach to managing maintenance risks, from identifying potential hazards to implementing preventative measures. This can help aviation authorities to detect potential safety hazards early and take preventative measures to prevent costly and dangerous failures.

Increased Cost-Effectiveness

As an aviation authority, ensuring cost-effectiveness is important to efficiently allocate limited resources to enhance safety and operational effectiveness. The system can help aviation authorities to achieve cost savings and optimize resources allocation in the aviation industry.
>One way digitalization can improve cost-effectiveness is by streamlining processes and reducing the need for manual labor, which can reduce costs associated with time and labor. For example, digitalizing record keeping can reduce the need for physical storage and printing of documents, which can save on storage space and paper costs.

Example

Safety is important in aviation and the Safety Oversight System is a critical tool that ensures compliance with safety standards and regulations. Therefore, many applications of Safety Oversight Systems have become widespread to many CAAs who have been adopted for various work processes.
The example of the Safety Oversight System at work can be seen in the Aircraft Maintenance Organization process. Across many countries, aviation authorities grant certificates to these organizations to ensure compliance with safety standards and regulations. Similarly, acquiring a pilot license requires substantial effort from the aviation authority. The Safety Oversight System simplifies tasks like issuing certificates or licenses by consolidating them into a centralized database. This not only eliminates the need for paper-based processes but also allows for more organized management of applications via the system.

The centralized database greatly improves the efficiency of the Safety Oversight System by streamlining data management and making it easily accessible. This ensures that safety information is both accurate and current, facilitating better analysis of safety concerns. Easy access to information accelerates the safety oversight process, enabling safety inspectors and auditors to identify safety risks more rapidly and implement timely mitigations. In addition, the shared platform fosters better collaboration among stakeholders, further enhancing the system’s overall efficiency.
Moreover, the system aids in preventing counterfeiting by regulating the printing of certificates or licenses. These documents can only be printed at authorized locations where the operators or applicants are entitled to receive them. The Safety Oversight System also ensures that documents such as audit reports are managed consistently, simplifying future updates or layout changes.
>By streamlining data management, simplifying access, and promoting collaboration among stakeholders, the Safety Oversight System plays a crucial role in upholding and improving aviation safety standards.

On a final note

The aviation industry is constantly evolving, and the challenges it faces are becoming more complex and challenging. The implementation of a Safety Oversight System can help aviation authorities to overcome these challenges and enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their regulation processes. Furthermore, the Safety Oversight System is one of keys tool that can help CAAs to prepare for the USOAP assessment. By implementing the Safety Oversight system, CAAs can demonstrate their commitment to safety and security and improve their chances of achieving a positive assessment.
>Countries such as the one discussed in the example have already implemented the Safety Oversight System, and other countries are likely to follow suit. By prioritizing safety, streamlining processes, and optimizing resource allocation, aviation authorities can ensure that the aviation industry remains safe, secure, and cost-effective for all stakeholders involved.

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Posted inCapacity, Efficiency •

Air traffic control: How to deal with uncertainty?

On the 21st of October last year I had the privilege to defend my dissertation titled: “Arrival Management in the Presence of Prediction Uncertainty”. In this blog, I will try to summarize what ended up being 11 years of work. It will describe where prediction uncertainty occurs, how the uncertainty may be determined and how that knowledge can be applied to visual interfaces and to algorithms.

Ref. M.Tielrooij, Arrival Management Support in the Presence of Prediction Uncertainty | TU Delft Repositories

Prediction uncertainty in Air Traffic Management

Modern Air Traffic Management systems use prediction of a flight’s trajectory as the basis for controller support. These applications include Short Term Conflict Alert (STCA), Medium Term Conflict Detection and Resolution CD&R, Arrival Management (AMAN), and flow/network management. Deliberately the above collection is ranked in terms of prediction horizon: The horizon is often determined by our ability to make a sufficiently accurate prediction for the application in which it will be used.

The accuracy of the prediction depends on the knowledge of the initial state of the flight, the knowledge of future events (weather, the intent of the aircraft but also of air traffic control), the degree to which we can model factors that influence the trajectory. With increasing horizon, the number and type of future events – or disturbances – increases. Hence, if we are no longer able to know and model these, the chance of a deviation between the prediction and the actual flown trajectory increases.

Different uncertainties for different flights

A lot of research has been, and is still being done, on increasing our ability to model. However, for applications such as arrival management (which rely on a desired prediction accuracy in the other of 10 seconds), the desired horizon is too large however. The European Regulation for Common Project One requires an AMAN horizon of 180 nm for Europe’s largest airports. London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt Airport are all within 180nm from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. Arrival management then invariably would require prediction (to the same order of magnitude of 10 seconds) of processes on the ground. With A-CDM requirements currently using a scope of 5 minutes as acceptable, this seems an impossible task.

If accurate predictions are not available, the next option is to make the system robust for uncertainty. The approach taken in my dissertation is to make the knowledge of uncertainty an integral part of the decision-making process.

Predicting uncertainty 

The prediction accuracy is a key performance parameter in any ATM algorithm. In testing of the design, a generic accuracy is often determined that applies to all flights for which a prediction is made. Such an approach disregards that the accuracy can vary from time to time and even from flight to flight.

By analysing predictions from the EURCONTROL Network Manager, the dissertation develops a method that evaluates the properties of a flight to determine the actual prediction uncertainty. In this way the previously described horizon could be dynamically changed based on the accuracies of the predictions at that moment. Benefitting from that requires making the abstract concept of uncertainty meaningful in regards to operational constraints.

Ref. M. Tielrooij, C. Borst, M.M. van Passen, M. Mulder “Predicting Arrival Time Uncertainty from Actual Flight Information” – 11th USA/Europe ATM Seminar, 2025

Making the uncertainty visible

Prediction uncertainty in arrival management manifests as an uncertainty in time. The uncertainty is therefore a property of a property of a flight. This makes the concept particularly hard to visualise. By showing the potential effect of the uncertainty on the arrival management timeline, the dissertation translated the concept into an effect that can be related to constraints in decision making.

Ref. Tielrooij, D. Nieuwenhuisen, C. Borst, M.Mulder “Supporting Arrival Management Decisions by Visualising Uncertainty” SESAR Innovation Days 2013

Changing our strategies

The diagram proposed above proved hard to understand for experiment operators. One critical factor in their use of the diagram was the problem that uncertainty requires a different planning approach. Critical evaluation of the display ultimately provided another route to improve strategies. Based on the diagram an algorithm was developed that provides the horizon at which a sequence swap would be unlikely. Such an algorithm could support a dynamic working horizon based on the actual prediction uncertainty of the moment. A graduate student from the Delft University of Technology recently successfully applied the algorithm on a different prediction source to support debunching of inbound traffic.

Ref. E. Oosterhof “Effect of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on a Probablistic Debunching Concept for Inbound Air Traffic”, MSc theses, 2022

Conclusion

Prediction uncertainty is a hard problem but here to stay in aviation. This work showed pathways to start using it as another piece of information in decision-making. Within To70 I hope to apply the knowledge gained during my PhD to support ATM in working with it, rather than trying to avoid it.

 

 

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